This hand is adapted from “Example 24” in from Hugh Kelsey’s book, Master the Odds in Bridge. In hearts, North holds K3 , and South (declarer) holds A10985. Declarer needs four tricks from the suit and can afford to lose the lead only once in his no-trump contract. … Read the rest
This is an excerpt from a lengthy post titled “Basic Bridge Odds.” The main purpose is to suggest useful approximations to use at the table: Also, the Individual probability entry can be multiplied by the number of combinations* in a given hand to obtain a probability for the holding.
1)Missing … Read the rest
Most players know the “8-ever, 9 never” rule for finding the missing queen, playing a nine-card … Read the rest
Often it is necessary to combine the probabilities of multiple events. For example, holding AKQT, missing six cards, you would like to know the chance of making four tricks. You hope to drop the jack in three rounds, but you finesse when obvious. The latter succeeds if you drop the … Read the rest
The “Suit Splits” tables at the end of this post show the odds (casual wording) of a split of a certain number of missing cards. The information is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_bridge_probabilities but rearranged to emphasize patterns. These “a priori” probabilities assume you haven’t played a single card and don’t know anything … Read the rest